Abstract
by Caroline Muller (ISTA)
Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) reaching mesoscale, i.e. scales of 100-1000 km, play a pivotal role as the primary precipitation source in the tropics. Those systems can have large cloud shields, and thus not only affect severe precipitation patterns but also play a crucial part in modulating the tropical radiation budget. Understanding the complex factors that control how these systems grow and how they will behave in a warming climate remain fundamental challenges. Research has approached this challenge from two angles: examining the environmental factors that influence DCSs, and investigating their capacity for growth and self-aggregation in idealized models. Despite this, the relative importance of environmental conditions versus internal system dynamics in determining the mature size of DCSs remains unclear. High-resolution global GSRM simulations, combined with Lagrangian tracking of DCSs and machine learning tools, provide new avenues to investigate this issue. In this talk, I will explore both the environmental drivers and the internal feedback mechanisms that contribute to the mesoscale growth of these convective systems. Findings indicate that intrinsic system dynamics have a greater impact on final system size than the surrounding environmental conditions, especially in larger systems where internal processes tend to dominate. This suggests that initial environmental conditions do not necessarily constrain the ultimate extent of DCSs.